Yoselina Guevara L.
On January 20, the meeting of the NATO Contact Group for Ukraine was held at the German Ramstein air base, a military complex inaugurated in the 1950s, designed by the French, built by the Germans and currently under the command of the Americans, which was famous for being the center for the deployment of the Pershing II missiles in 1983 that provoked the crisis of the so-called Euromissiles during the Cold War.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and their counterparts from Ukraine, Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland, among others, met in Ramstein and decided on a large aid package for Ukraine, which, in terms of armaments, was distributed as follows:
• United States will donate $2.5 billion in armament systems and ammunition, 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers, 59 Bradley fighting vehicles among others.
• Denmark will send 19 Caesar artillery systems.
• United Kingdom will donate 14 Challenger-2 battle tanks (6% of its stock).
• Poland and Finland will enter into talks with Germany on the transfer of Leopard-2 tanks depending on the authorization from Berlin for the re-export of German-made vehicles.
• Morocco is preparing to deliver T-72B tanks.
Pressures on Germany and Morocco gets in on the act
There is no doubt that Berlin is coming under increasing pressure from its Euro-Atlantic allies to allow the supply to Ukraine of Leopard-2 heavy tanks, which could have a significant impact on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In particular, Poland and Finland are offering to deliver the Leopard-2s to Kiev, but they need official approval from Germany, which holds the license to re-export them. Although German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hastily declared that Berlin “will not object” if Poland decides to send Leopard-2 to Kiev, the decision is in the hands of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who by all means has avoided commenting on the direct or indirect supply of the weaponry in question.
The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, informed this Monday, January 23, that his country will ask Germany for authorization, but he did not give an exact date and even tried to minimize such request by saying that it is “a secondary issue”. It should be noted that Morawiecki has aired the possibility of forming a coalition of countries without Germany, the union within NATO remains fragile. Berlin knows the risks involved in the delivery of Leopard-2 tanks, which could certainly lead to an irreversible escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as warned by the Vice-President of the Russian Security Council, Medvedev: “the world is approaching the threat of the outbreak of a Third World War due to Western behavior”.
On the other hand, Morocco’s entry into the conflict with the delivery of weapons to Ukraine is striking, thus putting an end to its hitherto neutral position. But this fact has other readings, not only Rabat’s search for the establishment of solid relations with NATO member countries, but also the desperation in which Kiev finds itself by accepting any type of armament, even if it is obsolete as in the case of the tanks to be sent by Morocco, which is evidence of the possible exhaustion of its defensive reserves.
Frontal confrontation is getting closer and closer
We should not minimize the magnitude of the armament package that in the next days will arrive to the Ukrainian territory, it should be noted that these are deliveries that have not ceased since the beginning of the conflict. Although the participation of the United States, the EU countries and NATO is not direct, it is not completely out of the question that they are getting closer and closer to a frontal confrontation with Russia. However, the reasoning is that they are cautious because surely their current arsenals of weapons, as well as the number of troops and logistic expenses to be employed, would not be in conditions to face a high intensity war against an adversary that has demonstrated to be prepared for all the scenarios that have been presented to it.
For his part, the President of Ukraine, Volodymir Zelenski does not speak of dialogue or negotiation, his objective in all the international forums he attends is to ask for arms supplies, even declaring that “the world must be quicker in supplying us with air defense missiles and tanks”. It is also truly paradoxical that the European Union is using the European Peace Support Fund for the extension of military aid to Ukraine, of which 3 billion dollars have already been invested so far for that purpose.
For the time being, the only thing on the horizon is the continuation of the conflict in Eastern Europe, which serves as a justification for the disproportionate increase in military spending by many nations. For example Germany wants to reach $100 billion per year in defense, Macron wants to double the French military budget since his inauguration, the U.S. Congress voted for an annual increase of 8%, China has long since consolidated its position as the second largest armed investor in the world. Unfortunately, as national budgets for military spending increase and the sending of weapons and soldiers to conflict zones is encouraged, the possibility of finding a solution that would lead to peace and mitigate the suffering of millions of human beings who continue to be victims of the horrors of war becomes more and more distant.
Yoselina Guevara López: social communicator, political analyst, columnist in different international media, whose work has been translated into English, Italian, Greek and Swedish. Winner of the Simón Bolívar 2022 National Journalism Award (Venezuela), special mention Opinion; Aníbal Nazoa 2021 National Journalism Award (Venezuela); I Historical Memory Contest Comandante Feliciano 2022 (El Salvador) Third place.
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