Habib Lassoued
Libyan Foreign Minister Najla al-Mangoush (R) and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu attend a press conference in the capital Tripoli, October 3, 2022. (AFP)
Libya has entered a new phase of polarisation that perpetuates the state of political and social division after the signing by the Abdulhamid Dbeibah government of two memoranda of understanding for gas and energy cooperation with the Turkish government.
Dbeibah’s move did not occur in a vacuum, but rather as part of a plan to confuse matters so as to block any agreement that could usher in an independent technocratic government to prepare for elections.
His intent is also to undermine any advantages that might come from the normalisation of relations between the House of Representatives and both Qatar and Turkey, especially after parliament speaker Aguila Saleh’s visits to the two countries and his meetings with the Turkish president and the emir of Qatar.
Dbeibah wants also to play on regional tensions and mobilise Islamists in his favour pretending to lead a legitimate authority that faces internal conspiracies involving parliament, the army top brass and the government of Fathi Bashagha as part of an illusory regional plot led by Cairo.
Dbeibah claims that he wants elections to be held in Libya. A few days ago he even called on the Independent High Election Authority to summon the voters to take part in the ballot, even though calling elections is not his prerogative. Dbeibah in reality sees elections as a threat to his authority, which he considers among the spoils he has won for himself.
If an international agreement is reached to hold elections, he prefers that they take place among political rifts. That would better serve his interests.
After being involved in a political showdown with Egypt, his government has displayed a lot of disdain towards Cairo. Whoever follows the statements made by this government after the signing of the two memoranda of understanding with Turkey, realises that the outgoing premier and his main supporters from the Islamists, warlords and the network of financial and economic barons tied to Ankara, individuals close to Algeria and the profiteers from his rule, are working to perpetuate the competition for regional and international influence in Libya.
Dbeibah is counting on his Turkish allies more than any other party, especially since Washington signalled its unhappiness about corruption in the ranks of his government and after US officials started talking about a new plan to divide oil revenues between the two Libyan administrations.
His alignment with Turkey is also linked to the signs of rising tensions between Ankara and Athens, as Erdogan’s regime is accusing Greece of militarising its islands in the eastern Aegean Sea, while Athens rejects these allegations, and repeatedly affirms its right to self-defence. This means that Dbeibah has thrust his government into the middle of a regional conflict.
The signing of memoranda of understanding with Turkey and the agreement to launch oil and gas exploration on the continental shelf between Libya and Greece has fuelled internal and external tensions.
Besides the parliament speaker’s rejection of the deals, the head of the Presidential Council also said agreements between countries cannot enter into force before they are approved by the legislative bodies. He made it clear that concluding agreements should have required prior consultation with him and that cooperation between countries is regulated by international charters and norms, as well as national laws.
Cairo, Athens and Nicosia rejected the Turkish deals, while the US State Department explained that they harm the stability of Libya’s foreign relations and impose long-term commitments on the country. The European Union considered that the agreements signed between Libya and Turkey require further clarification.
These and other positions, both at home or abroad, have placed Dbeibah and his government in a difficult dilemma. Rising pressures will put his administration in regional and international crosshairs.
In conjunction with the political and governmental divisions in Libya, there is a third mini-government working in the shadows. It was formed months ago by Libyan players from different regions. It has established lines of communication with Western capitals, especially Washington. Its main objective is to unify institutions, achieve reconciliation and ensure the right conditions for elections.
Dbeibah’s de facto government in Tripoli may remain in power for a few more weeks or months, but it will inevitably come to an end. Its leader will have no influence on any upcoming settlement formula and eventually will not be allowed to toy with the fate of Libyans.
Even if he won the approval of the Turks, Dbeibah has opened the gates of hell on himself from various sides. Ankara itself will not insist much on guaranteeing his survival as part of any new settlement, especially if it includes Egypt and is agreed upon by the European Union and the United States.
Tripoli Signs Controversial Agreements with Turkey, Provoking Widespread Rejection
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