Confidential RAND Report: Halt of Russian Energy Supplies Will Destroy German and EU Economies, Strengthen US

Deborah L. Armstrong
Construction of Nord Stream 2. Photo:

What if I told you that the economic hardships which Germany and the European Union are experiencing right now are all part of a plan which was outlined back in January? And what if I told you that the White House Chief of Staff, US Department of State, NSA, CIA and the Democratic National Committee all knew of this plan?

You can choose whether or not to believe me, but first I suggest that you examine this report titled, unambiguously, “Weakening Germany, strengthening the US.” The confidential report, which says that it was issued by RAND Corporation, a DC think-tank, was provided by an anonymous whistleblower in Germany to John Mark Dougan, an American journalist living in Moscow, Russia.

It’s a short, 6-page executive summary which says that it was distributed to all of the above-named agencies as well as a mysterious group known as “ANSA.” Whoever, or whatever, ANSA is, I was unable to determine, and neither was Mr. Dougan, whom I messaged this evening.

A quick online search of the term brought up several foreign-language websites which report about the war in Ukraine. Those websites were mentioned in previous RAND Corp publications, but it’s not clear whether or not they are related to the same “ANSA” listed in this document.

Here are screen prints of the report:

And here is John Mark Dougan’s original discussion of the report with two other insightful journalists. Very much worth watching if you want a deeper understanding of what all this entails.

John Mark Dougan discusses the “RAND” report

Since John broke the story, it’s been picked up by others including a Swedish publication. You can read their article here.

RAND Corp unsurprisingly denied publishing this report in a press release on September 14.

Screen shot of RAND Corporation statement denying publication of the January report.

However, if RAND Corporation did, in fact, publish this report it would not be out of character for the DC think-tank, which previously published a lengthy study about how to overextend and unbalance Russia by fomenting a coup in Ukraine, which is exactly what happened.

RAND Corp brief on Overextending and Unbalancing Russia.” Photo: RAND Corp

And, interestingly enough, the actions outlined in this more recent report have also been happening, presumably just as planned.

In fact, this think-tank, which employs nearly 2,000 people and has an operating budget of $350 million, has been influencing US foreign policy for several decades already. It was first exposed by none other than Daniel Ellsberg, who currently writes for Consortium News. In 1971, Ellsberg, who had worked for RAND Corp as a strategic analyst, leaked to the media classified documents detailing the US scope of involvement in the Vietnam War. RAND Corp is primarily tied to the Department of Defense and has been influencing, if not directing, US military and economic strategy since Cold War times.

The document begins, “The present state of the US economy does not suggest that it can function without financial and material support from external sources.”

That seems accurate enough, if you live in the US and you pay attention to what’s going on around you. That is, if you have seen how the numbers of homeless are steadily increasing in cities all across the country, how prices on just about everything have been skyrocketing, and how many jobs have been exported overseas.

The report goes on to blame the Fed for its “quantitative easing policy” as well as the Fed’s “uncontrolled issue of cash during the 2020 and 2021 Covid lockdowns” for leading to a “sharp increase in external debt and an increase in the dollar supply.”

These factors, the report says, are “highly likely to lead to a loss in position of the Democratic Party in Congress and the Senate in the forthcoming elections to be held in November, 2022.” It also says that “the impeachment of the President cannot be ruled out under these circumstances, which must be avoided at all costs.”

Clearly, RAND Corp (or whoever wrote this document, wink wink, nudge nudge) does not like the idea of Republicans on Capitol Hill (or any third parties, for that matter). And here you thought American elections were all about the choices of the people! Tsk-tsk.

“There is an urgent need for resources to flow into the national economy, especially the banking system,” the report continues,” Only European countries bound by EU and NATO commitments will be able to provide them without significant military and political costs for us.”

There is just one fly in the ointment, according to the report, and that is… Germany?

You read that right. Apparently, Germany’s increasing independence is the main obstacle in the way of the US gaining this influx of resources which is supposed to heal our broken economy. Or at least make more billions for the billionaires.

“Although it is still a country with limited sovereignty,” the report says about Germany, “for decades it has been consistently moving toward lifting these limitations and becoming a fully independent state.”

After the end of the Second World War, Germany’s economy, and most of Europe’s, was in tatters. And all of these decades since then, European countries have been rebuilding slowly and painfully. These days, the standard of living in Europe is certainly comparable, if not superior in some places, to America’s.

“This movement is slow and cautious, but steady,” the document reads. “Extrapolation shows that the ultimate goal can only be reached in several decades. However, if social and economic problems in the United States escalate, the pace could accelerate significantly.”

And Brexit, the report says, has contributed to Germany’s economic independence. With the UK’s withdrawal from the EU governing structures, “we have lost a meaningful opportunity to influence the negotiation of crossgovernmental decisions.”

“It is fear of our negative response,” the document continues, “which by and large determines the relatively slow speed of those changes. If one day we abandon Europe, there will be a good chance for Germany and France to get a full political consensus. Then, Italy and other Old Europe countries — primarily the former ECSC [European Coal and Steel Communitymembers — may join it on certain conditions. Britain, which is currently outside the European Union, will not be able to resist the pressure of the Franco-German duo alone. If implemented, this scenario will eventually turn Europe into not only an economic, but also a political competitor to the United States.”

And we can’t allow that to happen because at all costs, the US must maintain its global hegemony.

“Besides,” the report says, “if the US is for a certain period engulfed by domestic problems, the Old Europe will be able to more effectively resist the influence of the US-oriented Eastern-European countries.”

So now, it becomes even more clear why the US has fostered such a presence in Eastern Europe. Next, the report outlines the vulnerabilities of the German and EU economies.

“An increase in the flow of resources from Europe to US can be expected if Germany begins to experience a controlled economic crisis. The pace of economic development in the EU depends almost without alternative on the state of the German economy. It is Germany that bears the brunt of the expenditure directed towards the poorer EU members.”

The German economy rests on two pillars, according to the report. Unlimited access to cheap Russian energy is the first pillar, and cheap French electric power obtained from nuclear power plants is the second pillar. The stronger pillar of the two, by far, is the Russian one. And that is why the report suggests that the US make like the mighty Sampson of the bible, break the pillars, and bring down the whole economic house in a terrifying crash that will ruin untold millions of lives.

“Halting Russian supplies,” the report says, “can well create a systematic crisis that would be devastating for the German economy and, indirectly, for the entire European Union.”

“But Putin turned off the gas,” you may argue. Yes. Russia did indeed close the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and warned that it will not resume gas supplies until all the sanctions against Russia are lifted. At last count there were around a thousand of them. However, Russia would not have taken this action had it not been provoked to do so. Which is exactly what this report recommended.

In fact, the report brags about having blocked the alternative Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “Thanks to our precise actions,” it says, “it has been possible to block the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite the opposition of lobbyists from the steel and chemical industries. However, the dramatic deterioration of the living standards may encourage the leadership to reconsider its policy and return to the idea of European sovereignty and strategic autonomy.”

Meaning, as it gets colder and there is no heat, people are going to become angry and there will be protests, pressuring leaders in Europe to cave in to Russian demand that the sanctions be lifted. But thankfully for the billionaires who profit from this ugly mess, RAND Corp (allegedly) has a solution which, from the looks of things, has already been put into play.

“The only feasible way to guarantee Germany’s rejection of Russian energy supplies is to involve both sides in the military conflict in Ukraine,” the document says. Bear in mind, this was published in January, well before Russia began its Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

“Our further actions in this country will inevitably lead to a military response from Russia,” the report continues, referring to the covert assistance that the US/NATO has been providing to Ukraine since the Maidan coup in 2014, when the new regime in Kiev declared war on the Russian-speaking people in the eastern parts of the country.

“Russia will obviously not be able to leave unanswered the massive Ukrainian army pressure on the unrecognized Donbass republics.” Indeed, the mass slaughter of 14,000 civilians in the Donbass has outraged Russians for eight long years and there has been tremendous pressure on Russia’s president to intervene. But Putin, clearly aware of the trap being laid for him, avoided entering the conflict all this time despite many desperate pleas for help.

When Russian intelligence learned that a massive new onslaught against Donetsk and Lugansk was planned, Putin finally recognized the sovereignty of the two break-away republics in Donbass and announced the Russian SMO, which began on February 24th.

It was necessary, according to the report, to force Russia’s hand so that there would be a justification for a new round of sanctions against Russia, with the aim of forcing Putin to propose some sanctions of his own. Namely, the embargo of energy supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1.
Happier days. Schröder (far left), French Prime Minister Francois Fillon, Merkel, Medvedev, and others open the Nord Stream pipe in 2011. Photo: DW

Next, the report spends some time badmouthing Germany’s Green Party, which it refers to as “a strongly dogmatic, if not zealous, movement” which is easy to manipulate. It lambastes the leaders of the Green Party as “unprofessional” and unable “to admit their own mistakes in a timely manner,” citing the current foreign minister of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, and the climate minister, Robert Habeck, as examples.

“Thus,” the report continues, “it will be enough to quickly form the media image of Putin’s aggressive war to turn the Greens into ardent and hardline supporters of sanctions, ‘a party of war.’ It will enable the sanctions regime to be introduced without any obstacles.”

The report goes on to say that Germany’s supply of weapons to Ukraine will generate strong mistrust in Russia, lengthening any negotiations the two countries might engage in. And, “if war crimes and Russian aggression against Ukraine are confirmed, the German political leadership will not be able to overcome its EU partners’ veto on assistance to Ukraine and reinforced sanctions packages. This will ensure a sufficiently long gap in cooperation between Germany and Russia, which will make large German economic operators uncompetitive.”

And what has the media been talking about almost non-stop since Russia crossed over into the Donbass? Russian aggression and Russian war crimes, whether real or invented by a media complicit in this scheme.

Indeed, at a recent press conference in Prague, Baerbock stated, “We will stand with Ukraine, and this means that the sanctions will stay, also in winter time — even if it gets really tough for politicians.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock pledges to support Ukraine despite any resistance from her own people, while speaking at the Forum 2000 conference in Prague on September 1. Photo: Ruptly

She didn’t mention the dire consequences which this will have on the German population or the population of the entire EU, perhaps a less pressing concern than the potential downfall of politicians like herself.

But never fear, the writers of this report are very concerned about the future of all the little people. In fact, you can almost feel their glee as they logically conclude that the halt of Russian energy supplies will be disastrous for German industries. “The need to divert significant amounts of Russian gas for winter heating of residential and public facilities will further exacerbate the shortages.”

The report predicts a “domino effect” beginning with lockdowns of major industries, followed by shortages of components and spare parts used in manufacturing, leading to a breakdown of logistic chains and finally, a “complete standstill at the largest in the chemical, metallurgical and machine-building plants,” as well as “the shutting down of continuous-cycle enterprises, which would mean their destruction.”

Sitting here, reading this, I can only shake my head in amazement at the cynical minds behind this report, which outlines the destruction of a foreign economy and war in a foreign land where real people are dying by the hundreds every day. Little children blown apart. Land mines everywhere. Bombs falling on civilian buildings killing men, women and children who just went to the market to buy groceries for dinner. But hey, as long as it helps the US economy, right? Well, not the part of the economy that benefits you and me, but at least the wealthiest among us will benefit, right?

September 19 attack on Donetsk city center. 13 killed including 2 children. Video courtesy Russell Bentley on Telegram:

When businesses and industries shut down, people lose their jobs. Children go without. People suffer. But I guess coming up with ways to destroy other people’s lives pays pretty well, doesn’t it? I bet the authors of this report laughed all the way to the bank, uncaring about how many thousands, or millions, of lives will be ruined by the war in Ukraine and the resulting economic fallout.

How do such people live with themselves? How do they sleep at night? But I digress…

The report estimates that Germany could hemorrhage as much as 200–300 billion Euros. “Not only will it deliver a devastating blow to the German economy, but the entire EU economy will inevitably collapse.” The report predicts a sustained recession and decline in the GDP of 3 to 4 percent over the next 5–6 years, leading to panic and collapse of financial markets.

“The euro will inevitably, and most likely irreversibly, fall below the dollar,” the report goes on glibly. “It will become a toxic currency, and all countries in the world will rapidly reduce its share in their forex reserves. The gap will be primarily filled with dollar and yuan.”

The report predicts a sharp drop in living standards and rising unemployment (between 200,000 and 400,000 out of work in Germany alone) which will lead to “the exodus of skilled labour and educated young people” to the United States. Well, how convenient! And as a side benefit, the report says, Americans will be distracted from their immediate financial worries and consolidated in such a way as to “reduce electoral risks.” For the Democratic party, I assume? We wouldn’t want any third parties or Republicans getting any crazy ideas about having democratically-run elections, now would we?

And what would the US gain from this calamity? Around 7–9 trillion dollars if everything goes according to this plan. Of course, you and I won’t be seeing any of that money. But I’m sure that the oligarchs will be rewarded handsomely.

“Unfortunately,” the report concludes, “China is also expected to benefit over the medium term from this emerging scenario.” But don’t worry, these guys have that all thought out, too. “At the same time, Europe’s deep political dependence on the US allows us to effectively neutralize possible attempts by individual European states to draw closer to China.”

Hear that? No one can be friends with China or the US will not be happy. And when the US is unhappy, it does things like this to its neighbors. So hurry up and fall into line, get with the program, and OBEY.
A scene from the 1988 film “They Live”

Deborah Armstrong currently writes about geopolitics with an emphasis on Russia. She previously worked in local TV news in the United States where she won two regional Emmy Awards. In the early 1990’s, Deborah lived in the Soviet Union during its final days and worked as a television consultant at Leningrad Television.

Ukraine: It Was All Written in the Rand Corp Plan