The situation in Libya has seriously deteriorated. This happened after the statement of the representatives of the Libyan National Army (LNA) of Khalifa Haftar who work in the Joint Military Commission in the 5+5 format. They suspended the October 23, 2020 ceasefire agreement and left the commission. Experts believe that such statements could lead to the most undesirable consequences for Libya: from deepening the split between east and west going to a new war.
The senior LNA officers participating in the commission put forward four main demands: to stop the export of Libyan oil, to block the coastal road linking the east and west of the country, to cease cooperation and contact with the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) of Abdel Hamid Dbeiba, and to stop flights between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. In effect, this would mean giving up the commission’s most important achievements at the cost of immense efforts.
The Joint Military Commission was created in accordance with the decisions of the Berlin Peace Conference. Its actions helped stop the bloodshed and sign a ceasefire agreement after a failed campaign by Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Tripolitania (western region of Libya) launched in April 2019. In addition, negotiations began on the unification of the country’s military institutions, the necessary conditions were guaranteed to elect a transitional government, and an agreement was reached on the organization of a presidential and parliamentary elections in late 2021, which did not take place for several reasons.
According to experts, the sudden activation of the LNA representatives could be explained by at least two things:
- First, the willingness of Khalifa Haftar and parliament speaker Aguila Saleh to help their political ally Fathi Bachagha to occupy the seat of the new ministerial cabinet to replace Abdel Hamid Dbeiba, who refuses to resign.
- Secondly, the desire of the power center in the east to impose its own way of paying salaries to the LNA military on the government.
Abdel Hamid Dbeiba insists on paying the money into the individual accounts of each soldier. While Khalifa Haftar prefers the government to pay the entire sum in one installment, after which the military accountants will decide for themselves how and what amounts should be paid to the military.
In any case, the exit of senior LNA officers who are part of the Joint Military Commission of the ceasefire agreement was taken with great concern by the government of Abdel Hamid Dbeiba, who also holds the post of Minister of Defense. On the same day, he met with Army Chief of Staff Gribil al-Fitouri. The interlocutors stressed the important contribution of the Joint Military Commission to peace. According to the Chief of Staff, the work of the commission is clear and detailed, it has nothing to do with political issues. General Mustapha Yahia then said on behalf of the western participants of the commission that the views of colleagues from the east did not reflect the opinion of the entire commission.
The demands of the LNA commission members leave a controversial impression. Immediately after the senior officers’ statements, several Libyan media outlets reported that oil production in some LNA-controlled fields in the country had stopped. However, Brigadier General Ahmed al-Mismari, spokesman for the LNA, immediately denied the reports. It may be that Khalifa Haftar decided at the last moment that it would be counterproductive for him and Fathi Bachagha to play the oil card. Oil is the only source of income for Libya.
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