Yoselina Guevara López
The evolution of the current tensions in the Middle East indicates that a regional escalation may be generated in the coming days that could bring catastrophic consequences for the interests of almost all actors in the region. So far we have seen a continuous back-and-forth in adopting ambiguous positions, alternating between moderation and radicalism, which in essence reflects the growing fear of the possible total loss of the fragile stabilization that had been achieved at the regional level.
State of Israel: genocide in Palestine
The genocide being carried out by Tel Aviv in the Gaza Strip, which by the 110th day of Israeli aggressions has claimed the lives of 25.490 dead and 63.354 wounded, most of whom are women and children, in addition to thousands who are still under the rubble and on the roads, according to data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health. This military operation is far from achieving the quick victory that Prime Minister Netanyahu had announced at the beginning. It is necessary to emphasize that this massacre could hardly take place without the economic and military aid offered by the United States to the State of Israel to the detriment of the Palestinians.
The forces of Hamas, the Palestinian resistance, not only have not been eradicated, but they have not been defeated either. In this particular case, there are several reasons why it will be difficult for the State of Israel to destroy the Palestinian resistance movement. Firstly, because Hamas has a strong presence of high and mid-level leaders in other countries in the region. Moreover, the movement has strong roots in Palestinian society, especially in Gaza and the West Bank, because they have been able to help the Palestinian people in the difficulties they face.
At the political level, internally in Tel Aviv, the unease and rejection of Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing government continues to grow. Not even the massacre of innocent Palestinians has managed to make the Prime Minister forget his judicial problems, and logically, he has also failed to achieve Israeli national unity around this merciless genocide. In the international arena, the Israeli government will have to face before the International Court of Justice the accusations of “genocidal acts” in Gaza in a lawsuit filed by South Africa. In the 84-page dossier, Pretoria urges the judges to urgently order Israel to “immediately suspend military operations” in the Gaza Strip.
Lebanese Hezbollah: assassinations and bombings
The widening of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially in Beirut, is evident from the recent bloody operations carried out by the State of Israel on Lebanese territory. On January 8, 2024, Wissam al-Tawil, Hezbollah’s deputy head of special operations, was assassinated in southern Lebanon. Likewise, the assassination of Saleh Arouri, considered the number two in the Lebanese Hamas, who was also killed in an attack by Israeli drones. These deaths have resulted in the escalation of fighting on the border between Israel and Lebanon. In this sense, Hezbollah has increased its assertiveness against Israel, through continuous missile launches and rapid incursions, provoking the constant Israeli response, which in turn leads to the violation of Lebanese sovereignty and the simultaneous need to demonstrate the ability to react.
In other words, these events and aggressions initiated by the State of Israel increase the risks of a direct involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the part of Hezbollah and even Iran. However, it should be noted that a frontal enlargement would open up for the State of Israel definitely unsustainable war fronts, impossible to manage even with the help of the United States. On the other side for Lebanon, it is not an easy decision to make, because a direct conflict with the State Israel could generate chaos in the country, which let us not forget that they are still not recovering from the economic collapse they have suffered since 2019, in addition to the US sanctions, which have been increasingly drastic.
Iran: axis of resistance
An escalation of the conflict at the regional level could lead the Islamic Republic to cross the thin red line of security that has characterized Tehran’s international policy. Iran’s international strategy has been to form an anti-imperialist and anti-colonialist “Axis of Resistance” through military and operational support to different groups, mostly Shiite, but also Sunni, as in the case of Hamas in Palestine. In Yemen the Houthies; in Lebanon it is formed by Hezbollah; in Syria by the Zaynabiyoun Brigade and the Fatemiyoun Division; and in Iraq by the militias Asaib Ahl al Haq, Hrakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, the Badr organization and the Katatub Sayyad al Shuhada, among others. In the case of the Houthis, they have become the protagonists of forceful actions in the Red Sea that are affecting international trade and have dealt a heavy blow to Western powers. They have transformed from a local actor to take on regional and global importance; that is to say, it is not only the assertiveness of the Houthies, but of the “Axis of Resistance”. Hence the series of bombings of cities in Yemen (Sana’a, Hodeidah, Taiz and Sa’ada) recently carried out by the coalition formed by the United States and the United Kingdom with their allies Australia, Holland, Bahrain and Canada.
The Iranian strategy of forming this anti-imperialist bloc has been a thorn in the side of the United States and a subject of continuous debate between Democrats and Republicans. Precisely in this year 2024, in the heat of the U.S. presidential election campaign, both approaches continue to oppose each other. On the one hand, Biden is in favor of the diplomatic path, with his well-known covert action, and on the other hand, Trump is in favor of a head-on confrontation.
Finally, the situation in Iran is even more complex, where the political polarization between the first and the second generation of power leads to a systematic discord in institutional positions, ranging from the traditional pragmatism of the first to the impetuosity of the second. Moreover, it cannot be ruled out that internal pressure may re-emerge through protests, piloted from abroad and exacerbated at the communicational level, to generate chaos, with significant risks for the political and institutional stability of the country.
Yoselina Guevara López: Venezuelan social communicator, political analyst, columnist in different international media, whose work has been translated into English, Italian, Greek and Swedish. Winner of the Simón Bolívar 2022 National Journalism Award (Venezuela), special mention Opinion; Aníbal Nazoa 2021 National Journalism Award (Venezuela); I Comandante Feliciano 2022 Historical Memory Contest (El Salvador) Third place.
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