Habib Lassoued
It seems that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is following the Libyan scene from a planet other than Earth, as he touched on the “importance of unified international support for holding elections in Libya” this year. Thus he joined the chorus of delusionists who believe that there is indeed a possibility of organizing an electoral entitlement in light of current contradictions that dominate the scene.
Any Libyan citizen has the right to ask Blinken whether it is possible to organize elections in a country whose capital is still under the authority of militias and warlords who are fighting among themselves day and night, raising banners of exclusion in the face of all those who disagree with them in attitude and direction, considering themselves Guardians of the state and society and the February slogans. They do not recognize any political solution, national reconciliation, peaceful transfer of power, nor the right of the other and different to have a share of power and decision.
Is it possible, for example, for someone who defends the former mass system or the army leadership in the east of the country to run for elections in Tripoli, Misrata or Zawiya? And can someone like General Khalifa Haftar or Saif al-Islam Qaddafi run an election campaign in one of the cities or villages under the authority of the militias?
On December 24, 2021, elections were scheduled to be held in Libya to coincide with the seventieth anniversary of its independence, and the United Nations and almost all Western capitals, including Washington, were talking about elections that would get the country out of its crisis and restore its sovereignty to the state.. But none of this has been achieved, the UN system and the international community may be able to make promises, send pledges and promote wishes, while other accounts manage reality, through individuals who move events according to their will, and Blinken will not be able to force them to change their positions.
Who imposed force majeure on the 2021 elections?
There are those who say the militias that threatened to lay siege to the headquarters of the Independent High Electoral Commission, and there are those who accuse the head of the government of national unity, Abdul Hamid al-dubaiba, who broke his promise before the Dialogue Forum and trampled on the agreement not to run, insisting that he run in the presidential race, and raise the slogan either I win the presidency or Libya will be pushed towards unprecedented chaos.
There are those who believe that the real force majeure is the one embodied by the American decision to postpone elections after it was confirmed that the real competition will be between Haftar and Qaddafi, who are uncomfortable with them because of their close relations with Moscow, as well as because of their uncompromising sovereign national inclinations.
Libya is currently subject to attractions on more than one level, including competition for oil and gas deals and investments between the two countries that control actual military forces in the west of the country, namely Turkey and Italy, as well as the declared war between the American side, which aims to put Libya in its political and strategic orbit, and Russia, which cannot concede its presence inside Libya, which exists not only through elements of Wagner but also through intertwined relations with political, social and field actors, and in regional and international contexts related to the situation in the eastern Mediterranean in the Sahel-Saharan states. Moreover, a real conflict revolves around the sharing of wealth among those who see it as a booty who benefit from chaos and corruption, which we currently see in Tripoli, where the de facto authority practices all forms of bargaining, extortion, looting and suspicious deals with internal and external forces.
Dbaiba, who is the head of the national unity government, cannot move to the eastern province nor roam the streets and squares of Benghazi, Tobruk, Derna, Bayda or Kufra. On the other hand, General Haftar cannot enter Tripoli or Misrata, and Saif al-Islam Qaddafi is still in the southern regions. Also, there are Libyans who are still refugees, displaced or detained in militia prisons. There is an insistence among many parties that any upcoming elections will face non-recognition of their results from this or that party, especially since the national reconciliation project remains elusive because of the curse of wealth that some want to monopolize for themselves, their partners and those close to them.
It is enough to follow what is going on in terms of the disposition of public money by the Central Bank of Libya, which is currently under the government of Dbeiba, to realize that there is a real battle on the horizon that may overwhelm all the steps achieved over the past two years.
What Blinken said could indicate that Washington wants to organize elections that would enshrine the de facto authority represented by Dbaiba, who has so far done an exceptional job in advancing the interests of foreigners over the interests of his country, and who sees no objection to dividing Libya’s capabilities among six or seven countries that he believes are able to guarantee he can continue ruling indefinitely.
The Americans want elections conditional on the absence of those they consider disturbing to their aspirations in Libya and the region, and they do not care much about what is happening in the east or south of the country as long as oil is being produced and exported, and its revenue falls to the central bank.
As for democratic, pluralistic, transparent and fair elections that express the will of Libyans throughout the country, they will not be organized either this year or the next, because no one can currently remove the obstacles, or liberate the nation from the authority of militias, rogue weapons, mercenaries, foreign forces, corruption networks, money thieves and external interference, whether eastern or western, International or regional, directly or by proxy. Blinken’s statements are part of the structural vacuum in the US system of tampering with serious files until they are emptied of all their contents.
Translation by Internationalist 360°
INTERNATIONALIST 360° 