Elijah J. Magnier
“It is time for the US nuclear weapons in Europe to return back to America.” The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov summed up the Russian roadmap beyond Ukraine. This means that the Russian battle has begun because America has strategic nuclear forces in NATO bases spread across the European continent, including Turkey (which possesses fifty nuclear bombs at the Incirlik base under US ‘control’). Seemingly, the options ahead are much more defiant and complex than a « simple » war on Ukraine because the countries that Russia said should be denuclearised are NATO members.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was created in 1949 by the US, Canada and other European countries to provide security against the Soviet Union and combat communism. In reaction to the integration of West Germany into NATO in 1955, the Warsaw Pact (the Soviet Union, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Romania) was created. Following the end of the Cold War between the Soviets and the US, the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, but NATO was not. Several former Warsaw Pact members joined NATO after March 1999, notwithstanding the promises (which were neither treaties nor signed agreements) given by western officials, mainly the US, that NATO won’t expand “one inch eastward”.
Russia spent the last two decades building its strength and believed itself ready to confront the US in asking it to drop its spread of nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union European countries. NATO claims to defend its members and protect European allies against missile threats outside the Euro-Atlantic area. However, the UN security council did not authorise the US occupation of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Syria. The US (and its allies) doesn’t heed or need any authorisation to use its deadly force anywhere it chooses in the world. Therefore, NATO can only be an advanced US base in Europe, keeping the European leaders within its “club” under control and rallying behind the US objectives. Indeed, the US – conveniently – evoked Monroe’s 1823 doctrine, which told European countries how to handle their foreign affairs. Because of the US expansionist policy in Europe, Russia has decided that it has the power and will use it to stop it before it is too late.
It is not difficult to ascertain whether Minister Lavrov is raising the ceiling of Russian demands and is serious about revealing Russia’s insistent requests for the US disarmament of dozens of bases spread across Europe. Indeed, this fits with President Vladimir Putin’s demands, who requested, before the war began, that NATO return to what it was before 1997, that is, with only 12 members and the exit of the 16 members (excluding Turkey) who joined subsequently, from 1999 and until 2020.
It is unclear how President Putin intends to implement his goals, even if he seems serious. Thus, he asked his strategic nuclear force to be fully prepared in response to the West’s call to arm Ukraine and provide it with more weapons to prolong the war.
It is to be noted from the statements of Russian leaders that they are fully prepared for confrontation and solidarity behind President Vladimir Putin, contrary to what President Joe Biden would prefer. The US is trying to show the war as if it were one person’s decision, the Russian president alone, as previous US Presidents did in Iraq (Saddam Hussein’s regime) and Syria (President Bashar al-Assad’s regime). The terminology “Putin’s regime” is now widely used.
When Europe boasted about its sanctions against Russia, former Russian President and Security Council Vice President Dmitry Medvedev warned France:“Some French ministers said they have declared an economic war against Russia. Watch your language, gentlemen! And don’t forget that in the history of mankind, economic wars have often turned into real wars.”
Europe has lessened its enthusiasm for sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. In fact, Poland announced that it would not allow the transfer of aircraft and deadly weapons to Ukraine. It is worth noting that the US has a military base in Poland within NATO and that such a Polish decision to defuse the situation was certainly issued by a joint leadership.
The US has played the most significant role in fueling the war and inviting Ukraine to continue fighting, especially since the Pentagon announced that it was “helping” Ukraine manage the conflict through its military facilities. This is further evidence that the battle is not Ukrainian/Russian, but American/Russian on Ukrainian territory: this began quite some time ago, with the knowledge of all parties.
In April last year, the Kremlin pushed about 30,000 troops to the Ukrainian border. In August of last year, the number rose to 70,000, according to the US Director of General Intelligence, John Ratcliffe. He specifically accused President Joe Biden of not listening to U.S. intelligence reports that warned him that Putin was serious about Ukraine.
Russia has expressed its limits and intent in its effort to have a neutrality pact or move into Ukraine to prevent the establishment of nuclear weapons in a bordering country. Russian forces control many of Ukraine’s nuclear reactors, which total more than fifteen, scattered in the south, east, center and west.
Russia claims that the U.S. planned to restart some of these nuclear reactors to obtain highly enriched uranium to produce nuclear weapons and prevent Russia from interfering in Ukraine. Consequently, Russia considered that the danger continued to grow. Today, more than ever, Moscow possesses the strength to confront U.S. expansion through NATO, which no previous Russian president could do.
The world witnessed a similar crisis in 1962, when America invaded the Bay of Pigs to overthrow Fidel Castro. The Soviet Union deployed medium-range ballistic missiles in Cuba near American shores. And in October of this year, the United States discovered that Russia was building a nuclear missile base in Cuba, just as President Putin said the U.S. was planning in Ukraine.
However, the current crisis is much more serious than 1962 because weapons have evolved and become more precise. Nuclear weapons have been spread to many parts of the world and are no longer confined to Western countries and Russia.
It is a difficult world indeed to live in, waiting for the end of the war in Ukraine and the revelation of a Western plan that will come after Russia’s entry into Kiev. The West has many rabbits in its hat, but Putin has not engaged in this war to withdraw without achieving his country’s goals. He seems more determined than ever to end not only the war in Ukraine, but to go far beyond that.
Elijah J Magnier is a veteran war correspondent and senior political risk analyst with more than three decades of experience.
INTERNATIONALIST 360° 