Dmitri Kovalevich
Ukraine is effectively without its official political leadership these days following the expiration of the five-year election mandate of Volodomyr Zelensky on May 21, and his departure from the country as president for a string of ‘official’ visits to other countries.
Zelensky still claims to be president of Ukraine, but he has departed the country during much of June for visits to foreign countries. He is scheduled to visit Singapore, Qatar, France, and the Philippines in June, along with Switzerland where he will host an international ‘peace summit’ on June 15, and 16. All this as the Russian Armed Forces continue to prepare what may be a full military offensive in the northern border regions of Kharkiv and Sumy. Territorial losses by Ukraine have already taken place recently in Kharkiv.
Ukrainian political analysts and experts are lost in speculation about Zelensky’s prolonged departure from the country. Some are speculating that Ukraine is planning to provoke Russia into using tactical nuclear weapons by stepping up attacks using advanced, Western-supplied weapons against Russian nuclear energy facilities. Others argue his key role should be to harass and pressure the countries of the Global South into joining, or at least acquiescing, to the U.S.- and NATO-led war coalition in Ukraine.
The latter option is especially important as preparations continue for a so-called peace summit to take place in Switzerland on June 15 and 16. There, the Western countries and as many Global South countries as can be convinced to participate will meet to condemn Russia to approve the agenda of continued war as proposed by Zelensky and the governments of the United States and Britain.
Russia is not invited to attend the conference in Switzerland, while China leads the many countries declining to take part.
A key plan in Zelensky’s ‘peace’ agenda is a demand that Russia withdraw from all the regions of the former Ukraine it controls. All of these regions comprised populations that refused to accept the legitimacy of the coup government that came to power in Kiev in February 2014. They have all voted at various times to secede from anti-Russia, coup Ukraine, and join the Russian Federation. They include Crimea, the two Donbass republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and the portions of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions that are south and east of the Dnieper River. Large question marks hang over two other cities and regions where opposition to the coup was and remains strong —Odessa and Kharkiv.
In 2022 and 2023, ‘Ukraine peace summits’ under Western dominance were organized in Saudi Arabia, Malta, and Denmark. There, too, Russia was not invited, and the gatherings failed as a result. Most Global South countries ignored them and did not attend.
After it became clear that many countries, including China and Brazil, would similarly ignore the latest ‘peace summit’ to take place in Switzerland, Zelensky began issuing several undiplomatic and insulting statements against those countries refusing to attend, particularly against China. He accused China’s government of being “a tool in Putin’s hands”.
The latest attempt to tip the global scales in favor of the Zelensky-led regime was a surprise visit he made to the gathering of military leaders from the Asia-Pacific region at the ‘Shangri-La Dialogue’ that takes place each year in Singapore. This year’s gathering took place from May 31 to June 2. There, Zelensky accused China’s government of seeking to persuade the countries of the Global South to ignore the upcoming Swiss summit. “Is unfortunate that such a big, independent, and powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,” he told journalists.
Ukrainian political analyst Andriy Zolotarev says the loud statements directed against China by Zelensky could cause many trade and economic problems for Ukraine. “I’m sorry, but spit at China and China will respond, and if China spits, Ukraine could well drown,” Zolotarev wrote.
The Ukrainian website Liberal writes, “Volodymyr Zelensky either wants to put pressure on China in order to garner more support for his government’s war, or he is following the orders of external managers.” It continues, “The words of China’s President Xi Jinping clearly show that China is seeking a verified and balanced position, avoiding direct intervention and maintaining neutrality. This is an important lesson for outside observers and participants in the conflict in Ukraine. Pressure on China, especially in the public domain, can have the opposite effect and only complicate the situation.”
For some ten years now, Ukrainian media and bloggers have been accusing Russia of being an instrument in the hands of the Chinese government while accusing China of being an instrument in the hands of the Russian government. Such arguments have been made widely and repeatedly across social networks and online media outlets. The accusations repeat themselves with two or three similar versions of the argument, wearing out their novelty and welcome.
Zelensky has also criticized no less than U.S. President Joe Biden for his decision not to attend the Switzerland event. Zelensky calls that “not a very strong decision”. Days earlier, Zelensky called out Donald Trump, saying he could be a “loser president” if he imposes a poor peace deal on Ukraine. A wrong deal, Zelensky says, could end U.S. dominance as a global power.
Zelensky is clearly nervous and this explains why he is allowing himself to make intemperate comments about other countries and their leaders. His conduct and outbursts suggest that the chair under him rests on very shaky legs and wants to shift blame for his government’s deteriorating military and political position onto other heads of state.
The Financial Times reports that Zelensky even sent a memo to his government officials and to members of the country’s legislature (Rada) instructing them to criticize the U.S. president and President Xi Jinping of China for their respective decisions to not attend the summit in Switzerland,
There is one state whose leader Zelensky has never dared to criticize – Great Britain. It should be recalled that it was an emergency visit by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that scuttled a draft peace agreement reached between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul in late March/early April 2022.
Former Ukrainian Rada deputy Igor Mosiychuk says that Zelensky is very mistaken to be sharply criticizing Biden, Xi Jinping, and other world leaders because they will be aware of his electoral illegitimacy and they will remember how he and his government have acted. By shifting responsibility for Ukraine’s latest military setbacks onto others, the office of the Ukrainian president is bringing trouble on the whole country. “You saw Zelensky’s earlier statements, saying that Biden is weak and one day later warning Trump he could end up a ‘loser president’. Now his latest verbal hit jobs are directed against Xi Jinping. I’m looking at the faux pas on Telegram by Zelensky supporters, one of whom calls Xi Jinping a “baby killer”. This has nothing to do with diplomacy. It seems that the office of the president has a plan that in the event of diplomatic or military setbacks, reactions should be to blame the collective West and China. This is what we are witnessing now as officials throw around various accusations.”
Verkhovna Rada deputy Volodymyr Aryev echoes Mosiychuk, as reported by the online Ukrainian news outlet Politnavigator. “Talking to China in a boorish tone is a recipe for failure. We need to achieve some effective diplomatic results; we need to interest China in our situation. But if China sees that the leader of Ukraine is not quite up to the job, it is clear that this will directly affect any possible exchanges with China for cooperation.”
According to Aryev, Zelensky is behaving like an enfant terrible, spreading accusations all over the world while imagining that this same world will continue, or be newly convinced, to coddle his government and support it in their arms.
One of the likely reasons for Zelensky’s nervousness is the dependence of the Ukrainian regime on military successes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). These, in turn, will allow for his governing regime to continue receiving funding by Western governments. Or at least, the regime needs the appearance of such. Zelensky needs to lay the blame on other countries as much as possible. And better yet, he needs to draw NATO countries into direct conflict with Russia by means of provocations. One such provocative option could be provoking the Russian Federation into using tactical nuclear weapons. Russian military doctrine stipulates that any attack by Ukraine or NATO against Russia’s nuclear weapons facilities will be met in kind.
Ukrainian authorities may be comfortable in talking up provocations that could spark the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia against their own country because most of them are living outside the country during this period. And it so happens also that the nearly entirety of the children of Ukraine’s political and economic elites are studying and growing up abroad.
Rada deputy Oleksandr Dubynskyy believes that the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine in retaliation for Ukrainian provocations is quite real. He believes that Ukraine actually needs extreme actions by Russia in order to draw third countries into its war, which Ukraine itself is no longer capable of waging. “The government is a self-preserving system, and it has an interest in continuing the war. But it is unable to provide all the necessary resources for this… unless there is an escalation that will oblige ‘partner’ countries to provide yet more military resources… The involvement of third countries could turn the war into a global conflict. In such a case, the risk of the use of tactical nuclear weapons increases all the more,” Dubynskyy warns.
According to him, “The use of nuclear weapons, even ‘tactical versions’ with limited destruction, will put an end to all economic investments made in Ukraine by the international community. However, these investments are already under threat due to the deteriorating military and political situation.”
Kiev political scientist Gennady Dubov confirms similar assumptions, saying that Ukraine’s leadership hopes for a ‘black swan’ event that could dramatically change everything on the battlefield. [A ‘black swan’ event is one that is impossible to predict, yet after the fact appears to have been inevitable.] “I am sure that there is a viewpoint among a certain part of the Ukraine population and leadership that damage to Russia’s strategic nuclear forces would provoke some kind of tactical nuclear charge, and this will leave no choice for Western countries but to respond forcefully.”
The Ukrainian telegram channel ZeRada says that the Western proxies at the head of the Ukraine’s presidential office, notably Andriy Yermak, are “literally asking for a nuclear strike” by Russia.
Russian president Vladimir Putin told a lengthy, widely publicized press conference in St. Peterburg on June 5 that he understands perfectly well that long-range weapons systems located on the territory of Ukraine are being operated by the military of NATO countries, not by Ukrainian servicemen. In his opinion, Ukraine cannot on its own operate such highly complicated missile systems such as the British ‘Storm Shadow’ or the American ‘ATACMS’. He says the operation of these highly dangerous weapons is in the hands of the Western militaries. Consequently, retaliatory actions by Russia may be directed not only against the Ukraine military but also against the military personnel of NATO countries. This could be done directly, but also indirectly by countries needing defensive weapons from Russia. This would mirror NATO claims that it is not acting ‘directly’ in Ukraine and is ‘merely’ using the AFU as its cover.
“If someone considers it possible to supply advanced weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where there will be strikes on sensitive facilities of those countries that are doing this against Russia?”, Putin said.
Right-wing media in Britain has heard this warning loud and clear.
Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch believes that Russia may start supplying new classes of weapons to certain forces in conflict with Western hegemony. “I’ve written about the possibility of new weapons being supplied to the Houthis [Ansar Allah movement and government] in Yemen, leading to increased problems of trade navigation in the Red Sea. Yesterday, Putin hinted at such a possibility, though without mentioning the Houthis by name. My other prediction is that a ladder of escalation by Israel in Gaza could cause full-blown war in southern Lebanon. This prediction is already underway. According to my forecast, after Gaza and the Houthis, it will be Lebanon’s turn, then that of the Shiite militias in southern Iraq, then the armed forces of Syria (where, by the way, joint exercises between the Syrian army and the Russian forces have recently taken place). The final point of the escalation ladder is Iran,” the Ukrainian economist writes.
The Ukrainian news outlet Strana also believes that new types of missiles could be delivered by Russia to the Middle East, as the U.S. and Britain have many bases there which are quite vulnerable. It writes, “Putin made it clear that Moscow will not tolerate missile or artillery strikes against Russia by long-range Western weapons. Moscow considers that the use by the West of such weapons as the U.S.-supplied ‘HIMARS missiles “crosses a red line”. Long-range missiles are not operated by the AFU; they are impossible to use without the participation of a trained, NATO military. Strikes using long-range weapons against the Russian Federation, and Russia’s responses to that (even if Moscow does not directly strike but does so in third hands such as the aforementioned Yemen forces, will be another step towards escalation and transfer of the war in Ukraine to a completely different level and scale.”
Thus does the Ukrainian war, caused by the decade-long war by right-wing Ukraine against the people of Donbass, have every chance of moving to a new and higher level of danger, incited by pro-Western, right-wing Ukraine nationalism. This is a significant risk to the hegemony of the West itself and its financial and military system. It is a significant risk to the very foundation of modern capitalism and imperialism.
INTERNATIONALIST 360° 