Stopping Support to Kiev the Best Way to Respond to Recent Attack in Poland

Lucas Leiroz
The explosion occurred near the border town of Pshedvodov. Photo:

The recent missile attack that hit Poland, resulting in two deaths, caused a serious worldwide concern. The possibility of Polish authorities invoking Article 5 of NATO to mobilize a “response” to Russia raised fear, since this hypothesis would be a kind of official declaration of WWIII, in addition to being able to escalate to the nuclear level quickly. However, the warmongers’ plans seem to have failed

The “Russian attack” narrative is increasingly discredited. US President Joe Biden said it is “unlikely” that Moscow is to blame for the action. More that that, even Poland’s President Andrzej Duda stated “We currently have no evidence that the missile was fired by the Russian side.” He also said that a missile was likely a Russian-made weapon fired by a Ukrainian air defense system.

Fortunately, it appears that the international escalation of the conflict is once again about to be avoided. NATO has shown no willingness to try to push forward the baseless rhetoric that Russia attacked a member of the alliance. However, what is not yet clear is what will happen after the conclusion of the investigations. Preliminary data concludes that the missile used in the bombing is not one of the types of equipment employed by Russia in the special operation. In addition, reports point out that the Russian bombing closest to the hit region on the day of the attack took place more than 70 km away from the affected Polish village.

In fact, there only seems to be one possible scenario: Ukrainian forces bombed Poland. This obvious fact poses a challenge to Western authorities, which consists of understanding the reasons why Kiev would have taken such an attitude. There are two central hypotheses: either it was an accident, or the Ukrainian government deliberately assaulted Poland in a false flag operation to bring NATO into the conflict.

On previous occasions, Kiev had already carried out several false flag maneuvers to blame the Russians for war crimes committed by the Ukrainian forces themselves as well as justify receiving more military and financial support from the West. Furthermore, it is unlikely that an accident occurred in that specific region, considering the distance between Polish territory and the Russian targets that Ukrainian forces plan to hit with their artillery.

So, faced with an evident Ukrainian false flag, which generated fatal victims among citizens of a NATO country, the Polish attitude should be quite incisive, prioritizing its interests and the dignity of its people over its alliance with Kiev. Warsaw should stop all form of military and logistical support to the neighboring country and call on the entire Atlantic alliance to do the same.

In fact, the same logic that some officers want to apply against Russia, invoking Article 5, could be applied against Kiev, if Ukrainian responsibility is proven. NATO’s internal regulations point out that the alliance must declare war on any country that attacks one of its members. Such a rule is not exclusive to Moscow, and can be perfectly applied also to “partner” states, if they invade the alliance’s members.

Obviously, this scenario is unrealistic, considering the high degree of cooperation between Westerners and Ukrainians. But it is not necessary for such a drastic measure to be taken for the objective of responding to provocations to be achieved. It is enough for NATO to commit itself to immediately cease all support for the Ukrainian neo-Nazi regime, allowing local forces to face Russia with their own resources, without foreign money, weapons or mercenaries.

This attitude would be enough to guarantee the resolution of the Ukrainian issue in the short term, as the regime would run out of strength to continue prolonging the confrontations and soon the situation would be resolved. In this scenario, both sides, Russia and the West, could even jointly negotiate new peace terms and territorial configurations in the region, to serve the interests of both sides and prevent further escalations in the future.

However, NATO does not seem really interested in effectively mitigating the consequences of the conflict. Although the Ukrainian act, whether intentional or accidental, was harmful to an alliance member, the most likely thing is that Kiev will not suffer any consequences from NATO.

It is expected, however, that the citizens of Poland and other NATO countries will be less and less happy with this situation, as they see their territories violated and their infrastructure boycotted (as in the Nord Stream case) by the West-Kiev axis and are forced to simply accept this type of humiliation without any responses, only in the name of the “need to help Ukraine”. So, the more NATO harms its own citizens, the more its unpopularity will grow.

Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.

Kiev regime missiles hitting Poland – incompetence or false flag?

Drago Bosnic

On November 15 at approximately 3:40 PM CET (Central European Time) at least one missile hit the village of Przewodow in Poland, close to its border with Ukraine. The Western mainstream propaganda machine was quick to start blaming Moscow. A senior US intelligence official even told the Associated Press news agency that “a Russian missile has killed two people in NATO member Poland.” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called an urgent meeting to discuss the incident, while the Polish Foreign Ministry issued a statement claiming that a “Russian-produced rocket fell on the village of Przewodow at 3:40 PM local time, near the border with Ukraine.”

Still, as soon as the footage of the missile wreckage was shown, it became clear that the weapon in question was fired by the Kiev regime forces. Multiple US officials admitted this was the case. According to the AP, “key questions around the circumstances of the missile launch remained amid the confusion caused by a blistering series of Russian airstrikes across the nearby border in Ukraine, none larger than who fired it. Russia denied any involvement in the Poland blast. Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.”

The statement clearly contradicts the initial claim that the missile was Russian. Even the Polish government, which can be described as anything but sympathetic to Russia, issued a rather ambiguous press release, mentioning that the missile was “Russian-made” instead of just Russian. Most of the Kiev regime’s arsenal, particularly its surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems are Soviet/Russian-made and were inherited from the USSR. In addition, US President Joe Biden himself commented that it was unlikely the missile was fired by the Russian military.

And indeed, the location of the incident is nowhere near the engagement range of the system which can fire the missile. Preliminary reports and the footage acquired by various sources indicate that it was most likely fired from an older iteration of the Soviet-era S-300 SAM system. The Kiev regime forces operate several versions, but the vast majority belong to the S-300P/PS/PT series. The missile in question was most likely 5V55K, with a maximum engagement range of approximately 45 km. Modernized versions of the post-Soviet era were never deployed in Ukraine, while the closest Russian air defense units are at least 150-200 km away, in Belarus, and operate much more advanced systems such as the S-400.

In addition, it makes no sense for the Russian forces to fire a surface-to-air missile at a time when their long-range missiles are targeting Kiev regime’s strategic assets. On the other hand, it does for the Neo-Nazi junta forces, as their air defenses would certainly have the motivation to try and shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles. Still, this didn’t prevent the Kiev regime foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba from claiming that “Russia now promotes a conspiracy theory that it was allegedly a missile of Ukrainian air defense that fell on the Polish territory. Which is not true. No one should buy Russian propaganda or amplify its messages. This lesson should have been long learned since the downing of MH17.”

On the other hand, Polish President Andrzej Duda urged the public to “remain calm” and issued on Wednesday a statement claiming that a missile was likely a Russian-made weapon fired by a Ukrainian air defense system. “We currently have no evidence that the missile was fired by the Russian side,” he said.

He also said that the Polish military and other state services such as the police, firefighters and border guards raised readiness, adding that “the military is increasing the monitoring of national airspace as investigators are still working to establish the causes of the explosion.” Duda also stated that “there are no indications that the incident would be repeated.”

And yet, the Kiev regime is adamant that anyone claiming this wasn’t fired by Russian forces is a “conspiracy theorist”, which obviously also includes the presidents of the US and Poland. “Hitting NATO territory with missiles… This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a really significant escalation. Action is needed,” Zelensky was fuming during his Tuesday night video address. He claimed that it’s “only a matter of time before Russian terror goes further.” At best, the claims are indicative of the futile attempts to justify the Kiev regime’s incompetence. At worst, they imply that the Neo-Nazi junta is desperate to get NATO directly involved in the crisis.

The same could be true for certain Polish military and government services, as the implications that the much-touted “Patriot” batteries stationed along the border failed to intercept the incoming missiles mean that this either calls into question the system’s capabilities or indicates complicity.

In any case, regardless if the incident was accidental or a possible false flag aimed at escalating the conflict, the perpetrators are quite obviously unaware of the potentially cataclysmic consequences of their actions. Whatever interest they may have in seeing World War Three happen will fade into oblivion the moment strategic thermonuclear weapons start flying.

Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

Russian Ministry of Defense Military Update November 16, 2022