The Limits of Ukraine’s Offensive and the High Price to be Paid When it Ends

Update on Russian operations in Ukraine for October 5, 2022

– Latest US aid package falls far short of replacing steep Ukrainian losses amid continued offensives;

– Ukraine’s offensive has limited capabilities, will not achieve “victory” over Russian forces in territory deemed “Ukrainian” by Kiev;

– Ukrainian offensive is an “all-or-nothing” proposition, hoping to achieve psychological and political gains toward ending the conflict in ways Ukrainian military force cannot;

– Western analysts celebrate the psychological impact the offensive is having on pro-Russian media, pundits, and even prominent members of Russian society;

In reality, Ukraine will be left overextended and vulnerable just as Russia’s 300,000-strong mobilization begins shaping the battlefield.

References:

US Department of Defense– $625 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine Oct. 4, 2022: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases…

US DoD – Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura K. Cooper Hold a Press Briefing Oct. 4, 2022: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcri…

Washington Post – Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/…

NY Times – In Ukraine’s South, Fierce Fighting and Deadly Costs: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/wo…

Business Insider – The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it’s looking for US companies to build more of them.: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-wa…