While the French president is doing calisthenics and flexing his muscles against Russia – the greatest nuclear power on the planet – trying to become the last stumbling block to President Vladimir Putin’s victory in Ukraine, it seems that he has not learned that since 2021 he has lost absolute influence in three of the main countries that ensured his permanence as a hegemonic power in his former African colonies.
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the latter a key country for the supply of uranium that feeds France’s nuclear power plants that produce about eighty percent of the energy it uses, have expelled diplomats and all French military presence in their countries, while Chad, its historical continental gendarme, after the May 6 elections could join the Sahelian triad and detach itself from the decadent French colonialism (See: Chad in the face of historical change?). And far from the hot sands of the Sahel, France now seems to be about to receive another blow in New Caledonia, the small and remote archipelago in the South Pacific.
Beyond its size and mineral wealth, New Caledonia is the world’s third largest exporter of nickel, essential for the manufacture of stainless steel and batteries for electric vehicles, as well as having large deposits of chromium, cobalt, iron and magnesium.
In the context of the fall in nickel production, the first quarter of the year was thirty-two percent lower compared to the same period of last year, a deep economic crisis has been generated which has produced great uneasiness among the population, both against the local Government and against the metropolis.
The current financial situation has just been compounded by the decision of Paris to modify the regulations for the next provincial elections, which grants greater rights to French citizens with ten years of residence and modifies what was previously established, which allowed only foreigners residing prior to 1989 to vote. Since then it is estimated that about 50,000 French women have settled in this colony, so that the Kanak independence movement has understood the measure as an attempt to liquefy their vote, which represents forty percent of the 280,000 inhabitants of which about 112,000 are indigenous.
The archipelago of New Caledonia was occupied by France in the 19th century and became officially a French overseas territory in 1946 after the independence revolts of the 1980s, which left about 100 dead, with episodes such as the massacre of the Ouvéa Caves, in which the French gendarmerie killed the main leaders of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) movement. After that period France granted a special status by transferring some powers to the local government.
The unilateral decision of the Macron government has reached for the Caledonian nationalists the point of no return after decades of tensions fueled by the disadvantageous situation of thousands of natives who receive little or nothing from the rich mineral deposits controlled by European companies such as the Swiss Glencore and the French Euramet, which in the current context announced their withdrawal from the activity.
Despite the fact that of the three opportunities in which the Nouméa Agreement (1998) made possible referendums for independence, the last one, in 2021, was contested by the Kanak leadership, which had tried to postpone it after the Covid-19 crisis, the pro-independence militancy has continued until today.
After the approval of the modification to the electoral law, a series of violent protests began in Nouméa on the night of Monday 13, when legislators in Paris were discussing the new constitutional amendment. The events, once the reform was approved, spread from the capital to the interior of the main island of some 18,000 square kilometers.
The days of protests, encouraged by the group known as the Coordination Cell for Action on the Ground (CCAT) -a detachment last November of the Union Calédonienne, a radicalized sector of the FLNKS- have revived the spirit of independence that since the 80s of the last century had remained latent, becoming, on this occasion, the greatest expression of violence since then.
Up to Sunday 19 there were six dead, two policemen and four civilians, 60 men of the security forces wounded and more than 80 people arrested. Meanwhile, hospitals have reported that the number of wounded by bullets that they receive every night is increasing daily.
In addition, the demonstrators have looted some 50 commercial establishments and stormed hotels and public buildings, while some two hundred vehicles have been set on fire both inside the city and on surrounding roads, which were cut off, preventing the arrival of medicines and foodstuffs. Damage estimates so far exceed US$200 million.
In response to this context, in the southern neighborhoods of the capital, where the largest number of foreign residents are located, barricades have been erected and heavily armed civilians are seen. The rampage has forced the establishment of a night curfew, the prohibition of meetings, the sale of alcoholic beverages and the closure of the international airport of La Tontouta for commercial flights.
Meanwhile, the deployment of hundreds of police officers has been ordered to restore order and maintain peace. On Friday, the first contingents of French Marines began to arrive and it has just been announced that another 1,000 soldiers have been ordered to leave for New Caledonia from various nearby bases. French Justice Minister Eric Dupond-Moretti has asked prosecutors to crack down on those responsible for the riots.
The fear of the authorities is that the conflict could escalate into a civil war, since it is estimated that the population has a large number of weapons, according to some estimates, one weapon for every four inhabitants, used for hunting and sport shooting. However, according to the High Commissioner of New Caledonia, there could be as many as 130,000 illegally in circulation.
Disturbing friendships
The French Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, in televised declarations openly accused Azerbaijan, China and Russia of interfering in the internal affairs of New Caledonia, ignoring that the independence process, frozen for decades, seems to have awakened in response to the economic crisis, the handling of the electoral laws and according to the minister they would not be factors to be taken into account.
In the Chinese case such a statement would go against its own interests since Beijing, for years, has become a major investor in the Caledonian nickel industry. However, the main argument for France’s strong repression in the archipelago is the need to keep it under its control. Even more than any of the other four island territories it holds in the Indo-Pacific. New Caledonia has become Macron’s bridgehead to increase its presence in the region, today the main field of dispute between Washington and Beijing.
In preparation for this framework, Paris has increased the presence of military personnel and weapons of the Armed Forces of New Caledonia (FANC), with three bases, the Pointe Chalaix Naval Base, the Air Force Base and the Naval Aviation Base at Paul Klein Air Base. In 2022, the Macron government announced increased surveillance in the Pacific through the construction of a new docking pier at the Chaleix base.
While it is true that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev continues his anti-colonial diatribe, particularly against France, for its pro-Armenian stance in the conflict that these two countries have maintained since before the emergence of the Soviet Union in 1922, and which continued after its disappearance in 1991 over the Nagorno Karabakh enclave, which has already led to two major wars, the last in 2020, although practically no week goes by without some armed clash.
Baku’s discomfort, moreover, lies in the fact that France was one of the three mediating countries that made up the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) together with Russia and the United States. That is why, according to Paris, Baku would have created an alliance of 14 anti-colonial political movements throughout the former French empire which is still suffering its consequences.
The French response to President Aliyev was given in July last year by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Catherine Colonna, reaffirming the support of the Elysée for the rights and security of the Armenians of Karabakh. And last April by ordering the withdrawal of the French ambassador from Baku.
Regardless of who Macron seeks to hold responsible for his own blunders, and with the stigma of having lost in a few years three of his main enclaves in Africa, he will not be able to bear the political cost of his main foot in the Indo-Pacific area also whispering “adieu à la France”
Guadi Calvo is an Argentine writer and journalist. International analyst specialized in Africa, Middle East and Central Asia.
INTERNATIONALIST 360° 