Yoselina Guevara López
Russian President Vladimir Putin this May 12 replaced Sergei Shoigu as Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation with Andrey Belousov; a change that should be read in light of the needs posed by the new strategic scenario related to the Ukrainian conflict, as well as some recent corruption scandals.
The now former minister of the Russian military portfolio played a crucial role first in the military interventions in Crimea and Donbas in 2014 and then in the powerful Russian military operation in Syria. Likewise much of the success of the special military operation in Ukraine is due to Shoigu; the significant results achieved by Moscow’s forces with the conquest and establishment of a land corridor connecting the Crimean peninsula with Russian territory cannot be ignored.
Shoigu’s downfall
Despite Shoigu’s significant achievements, one may wonder why his fall came about. The reasons were accumulating; first of all the stagnation of the Russian advance in Ukraine has brought to light a series of internal problems in the Russian armed forces. Being a highly centralized structure in the decision-making process, as it is common in this type of structure, it has turned out to be a serious problem in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Added to this are the recent cases of corruption that have depleted the resources of the armed forces, leading to a decrease in their combat capacity. On the other hand, the hybrid conformation of the Russian army, with conscripts, volunteers, and even militia corps such as the Wagner Group, has created a force that borders almost on the incapacity to manage it.
Indeed, during 2023, the accusations of the Wagner Group, led by Evgheny Prigozhin, were vociferous, denouncing the Russian Defense Ministry’s deliberate failure to provide adequate ammunition to its forces, condemning them to bloody frontal attacks against Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut. Friction between Wagner and the Ministry’s top brass erupted in June 2023, when forces under Prigozhin’s command launched a massive uprising that quickly collapsed in on itself, but represented the first significant challenge to President Putin’s government since 1999. However Shoigu withstood the Wagner Group’s onslaught and months later Prigozhin died in bizarre circumstances.
Corruption: a losing battle for Shoigu
In a country besieged by sanctions from the United States and its allies, the corruption scandals involving Timur Ivanov, Deputy Defense Minister, one of Shoigu’s closest collaborators, cannot be forgiven. This official had been appointed to supervise the logistical assets of the Ministry of Defense, in particular the management of real estate, including the construction and supply of barracks, the reconstruction of housing and infrastructure in the Donbass, and even the construction of medical and sanitary facilities for the civilian population. Investigations led to the uncovering of a bribery case by Timur Ivanov for about 1 billion rubles, about $12 million, involving a construction businessman Sergey Borodin leading to the arrest of the deputy defense minister.
In the absence of strong ethical principles, a huge increase in military spending can lead to a simultaneous increase in corruption, which has evidently caused serious damage to Moscow’s war efforts. At the same time, the Ukrainian conflict has already taken on the appearance of a war of attrition, in which production and the proper allocation of military resources have become much more important than tactical maneuvers.
Belousov: efficiency, effectiveness and probity to the test
In this regard, the profile of the new Minister of Defense, Andrey Belousov, who has a brilliant education as an economist, perfectly meets the current requirements for the development of the war in Ukraine. For President Putin at the moment it is more important to have a good manager of resources, who has proved his probity and ethics with the reputation of incorruptibility, discarding possible brilliant military strategists.
The choice of Belousov is decisive for consolidating the country’s war economy and intensifying the industrial production of war material. In fact the new defense minister has been one of the promoters of the development and mass production of drones that is making a difference and can be decisive on the Ukrainian battlefield. Belousov has also been particularly effective in carrying out his duties related to mitigating the effects of Western sanctions, unlike the military authorities, who have been unable to achieve Russia’s main objectives during the war.
President Putin is giving a clear sign of his fight against corruption with the dismissal of Minister Shoigu, and it is not out of the question that if evidence against him emerges, he may also be removed from this new post. At the same time, with Andrei Belousov in charge of defense management, he seeks to guarantee Moscow’s total success in the war against Ukraine and the Western forces that have wanted to destroy the Russian Federation.
Yoselina Guevara López: social communicator, political analyst, columnist in different international media, whose work has been translated into English, Italian, Greek and Swedish. Winner of the Simón Bolívar 2022 National Journalism Award (Venezuela), special mention Opinion; Aníbal Nazoa 2021 National Journalism Award (Venezuela); I Historical Memory Contest Comandante Feliciano 2022 (El Salvador) Third place.
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