Wary of Hezbollah’s domestic motives in backing Palestine, Lebanon’s Christians are hesitant to align with their resistance. But their political apathy may ultimately cost them demographically by advancing Israel’s goal to flood regional states with Palestinian refugees.
Ever since 8 October, when Hezbollah rallied militarily to support the Palestinian resistance in Gaza in their war against Israel, Lebanese Christian political leaders have taken a firm stance opposing the entanglement of the Shia powerhouse – or any other Lebanese faction – in the region’s myriad conflicts.
Notable figures among these are former President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Gebran Bassil – both long-term Christian allies of Hezbollah since 2006, who now vocally oppose efforts to unite forces in support of Palestine. Even influential figures like the head of Lebanon’s Maronite Church, Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, echo this sentiment.
Samir Geagea, leader of the right-wing, pro-US Lebanese Forces, never one to mince words, accused Hezbollah of seeking to “obtain the presidency and Lebanon’s government in return for withdrawing weapons from the border” with Israel. Anyone thinking of a bargain involving the presidency and the border situation, Geagea said, would be “dreaming.”
According to Geagea – who served 11 years in prison for the 1994 bombing of a church and the assassination of top Lebanese political officials and their families – Hezbollah “does not want to engage in a war, but only wants to garner internal gains, while Iran wants to garner additional gains at the regional level.”
The former warlord stressed that “putting Lebanon in the barrel of the cannon will not benefit the Palestinian cause but will bring us total destruction.”
Lebanon’s political deadlock
For his part, Samy Gemayel, Head of the Kataeb Party, claims:
Hezbollah deceives both Lebanese and Palestinians when it pretends to open a support front in the Gaza war. However, this front practically has no impact on the situation in Gaza … Any barter that protects Israel’s security at the expense of handing over Beirut to Hezbollah … Anyone who thinks that such a settlement will pass is mistaken, as we will be in the face of any new settlement that threatens our future in Lebanon.
It should be noted that the Kataeb and Lebanese Forces parties (the latter existed initially as the military wing of the former) fired the first bullet in Lebanon’s 15-year civil war at Palestinian civilians and are responsible for the notorious Sabra and Shatila refugee camp massacre, in which thousands of Palestinians were gunned down over three days, all while Israeli choppers lit the night skies overhead.
Today, Lebanese political analyst Wael Najm says the country’s political parties are in limbo, “awaiting the outcome of the battle in Gaza and the confrontations in southern Lebanon. Thus, the movement in the presidential file has been frozen.”
These accusations from Lebanon’s Christian leaders come despite Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah stressing that his party would not seek to achieve political gains in Lebanon based on the results of the Gaza war.
As FPM member Rindala Jabbour tells The Cradle:
Hezbollah does not exert its military power in Lebanese internal politics. If it wanted to use its surplus power, it would have done so after the 2006 war, and there have been many opportunities to do so. Hezbollah does not impose its power. Otherwise, there would be many different equations. It would have imposed many things it wanted.
“I don’t think we are any longer in the era of political Shiism, Maronism, or even Sunnism. I think we [Lebanon] have passed those stages,” she adds.
Maronites for the Moqawama
Highlighting the interconnectedness of regional dynamics, Jabbour says, “There is an awareness that what is happening in Palestine, Syria, and the encirclement countries will inevitably affect Lebanon,” and that many Christians will ultimately support the fight against Israeli aggression.
Many Christians support the resistance because they know it has a fundamental role in protecting Lebanon and has given the country a deterrent force. This group knows that there are consequences and repercussions of the Palestinian war on Lebanon, especially if the Palestinian resistance is defeated and Israel achieves its goals.
Jabbour clarifies her party’s position: “By separating the squares, we mean not to put Lebanon in a crisis in which it cannot bear the repercussions. The Free Patriotic Movement is indeed with the separation of squares, but it appreciates the wisdom of the resistance in dealing with the different issues.”
There is a point of view that supports the resistance, but it expresses its fear of provoking an Israeli war and giving an excuse for Israel to invade Lebanon. Especially since Lebanon currently can’t handle any war.
Jabbour laments the shortcomings of some Christians who distance themselves from the resistance, expressing concerns that their words and actions may inadvertently align with Israel’s interests, as was the case with the Phalangists during the Lebanese Civil War.
Writer and researcher Qasem Qassir explains to The Cradle that many critics of Hezbollah’s battle on the southern border are so caught up in Lebanon’s endless, internal political squabbles that they can’t see the forest for the trees:
Hezbollah confirms, through all of its officials, that participation in the war has to do with confronting the Israeli enemy and supporting the Palestinian people and has nothing to do with any internal issue, regardless of the results of the war and its connotations. Hezbollah further confirms that with the implementation of the Taif Agreement and with the internal dialogue on all files, including the presidential file, no amendment will be put forward to the system and that it respects the Lebanese formula.
The Taif Agreement, for those uninitiated in Lebanon’s sect-based political system, is the 1989 deal struck between feuding Lebanese warlords to end the country’s 1975–1990 Civil War, in which all sides endorsed a plan to divide parliamentary seats equally between Muslims and Christians.
Concerning the negative repercussions that could impact Lebanese Christians in the widening regional war, Qassir believes that “First and foremost, the Israeli danger is a danger to all of Lebanon, not only to Palestine or Gaza, and there is an Israeli objective to displace Palestinians to Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. Therefore, it is important to support the resistance and face Israel,” regardless of one’s views on the region’s Iran-led Axis of Resistance.
Gaza affects Lebanon
A recent survey conducted by the Jewish People’s Policy Institute revealed that 63 percent of Israelis believe that their military should attack Hezbollah with full force at the first available opportunity or after the war in Gaza subsides. These results are consistent with the official Israeli rhetoric calling for the invasion of Lebanon – irrespective of whether a lasting ceasefire is struck with Gaza.
Speaking to The Cradle, Palestinian political analyst Iyad al-Qara laments the shortsightedness of Lebanon’s naysayers: “The positions of some Christian parties, unfortunately, were negative, both regarding the resistance operations in southern Lebanon and those they had during the Gaza war. This is surprising.”
“If Gaza falls, this could be a prelude to the occupation of Lebanon,” he warns. Qara further points out:
The steadfastness of Gaza helps protect Lebanon from Israel’s attacks. Therefore, Christians should not look at the current conflict from the perspective of disagreements and wars with some Palestinians, especially since the circumstances are different from before. They must reconsider their position because the victory of Gaza is a victory for both Lebanon and Palestine. Thus, their position should be more positive.
“The Israeli army’s attempts to displace people from Gaza will continue, whether optional or mandatory,” Qara concludes.
In this context, extremist Israeli activist Daniella Weiss, the “godmother” of the Zionist settler movement, which for the first time in Israel’s history has powerful cabinet members representing its interests at every level, recently told CNN: “No Arab, I’m speaking about more than two million Arabs. They will not stay there. We Jews will be in Gaza … 500 families have already signed up to resettle in Gaza.”
Be careful what you wish for
According to UNRWA, there are 1.2 million Palestinians in the Rafah area, south of Gaza, who are currently surviving in catastrophic humanitarian conditions.
A report by Lebanese academic and researcher Abbas Assi, published on the Carnegie Endowment For International Peace website, states, “The Christian community in Lebanon has several concerns about the ongoing war. They fear that if Israel defeats Hamas, it may be tempted to launch a full-scale war on Hezbollah in Lebanon, further impacting the already fragile Lebanese economy.”
Moreover, they worry that Israel’s success in deporting Palestinians from Gaza could impede the return of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon to their homeland, and their naturalization in Lebanon would become inevitable. As a result, the power of the Christian minority, which is already grappling with a demographic decline, would be further weakened.
Lebanese journalist Ghassan Saoud says the Lebanese Church is now working to mitigate negative fallout by crafting a national document in cooperation with several Christian political parties. Among the paper’s goals is “to be frank with others about concerns (among Christians in particular) in a calm, rational, and sober language, far from street hooliganism.”
In the final analysis, the war on Gaza should not be allowed to negatively impact Lebanon’s political fabric – especially during a period of insecurity.
Rather than banking on the downfall of Palestinian resistance or envisioning a post-Hezbollah Lebanon, Lebanon’s Christian politicos should consider the broader, more immediate ramifications of the growing regional conflict. The loss of Gaza could fundamentally alter their position in West Asia, with the refugee crisis exacerbating their demographic minority status in Lebanon.
This could potentially necessitate amendments to the Taif Agreement to align with Lebanon’s evolving demographic and political reality. Consequently, Christian political leaders – particularly those aligned with anti-Hezbollah foreign states – are advised to weigh these issues carefully before lashing out at Lebanon’s resistance, the country’s only safeguard against Israel.
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